scholarly journals Patterns of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning and Convective Rainfall Associated with Postwildfire Flash Floods and Debris Flows in Complex Terrain of the Western United States

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 989-1003 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Jeffrey Underwood ◽  
Michael D. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning

scholarly journals Empirical atmospheric thresholds for debris flows and flash floods in the southern French Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1517-1530 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Turkington ◽  
J. Ettema ◽  
C. J. van Westen ◽  
K. Breinl
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Mountainous Regions

Abstract. Debris flows and flash floods are often preceded by intense, convective rainfall. The establishment of reliable rainfall thresholds is an important component for quantitative hazard and risk assessment, and for the development of an early warning system. Traditional empirical thresholds based on peak intensity, duration and antecedent rainfall can be difficult to verify due to the localized character of the rainfall and the absence of weather radar or sufficiently dense rain gauge networks in mountainous regions. However, convective rainfall can be strongly linked to regional atmospheric patterns and profiles. There is potential to employ this in empirical threshold analysis. This work develops a methodology to determine robust thresholds for flash floods and debris flows utilizing regional atmospheric conditions derived from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, comparing the results with rain-gauge-derived thresholds. The method includes selecting the appropriate atmospheric indicators, categorizing the potential thresholds, determining and testing the thresholds. The method is tested in the Ubaye Valley in the southern French Alps (548 km2), which is known to have localized convection triggered debris flows and flash floods. This paper shows that instability of the atmosphere and specific humidity at 700 hPa are the most important atmospheric indicators for debris flows and flash floods in the study area. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that atmospheric reanalysis data are an important asset, and could replace rainfall measurements in empirical exceedance thresholds for debris flows and flash floods.

scholarly journals on the prevention of lighting

1969 ◽  
Vol 50 (7) ◽  
pp. 514-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. D. Stow
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Agricultural Crops ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
The World ◽  
Lightning Discharges ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽  
Recreational Resources

The destructive nature of cloud-to-ground lightning strokes is well known. Loss of life and damage to buildings and other man-made structures may to a large extent be prevented by the judicial use of lightning conductors and screens but no comparable protection may be offered to expanses of agricultural crops or forests. According to Fuquay (1967) lightning is the greatest single cause of forest fires in the western United States: during the period 1946–1962, 140,000 such fires occurred causing severe losses of timber, wildlife, watershed, and recreational resources. Comparable losses occur regularly in other parts of the world. The only solution is the suppression or modification of cloud-to-ground lightning discharges. Methods of suppression are described, some of which may turn out to be practical ways of achieving this aim.

scholarly journals Algorithm for Improved QPE over Complex Terrain Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Occurrences

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Carlos Minjarez-Sosa ◽  
Julio Waissman ◽  
Christopher Castro ◽  
David Adams
Keyword(s):  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Region ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽  
Noise Test

Lightning and deep convective precipitation have long been studied as closely linked variables, the former being viewed as a proxy, or estimator, of the latter. However, to date, no single methodology or algorithm exists for estimating lightning-derived precipitation in a gridded form. This paper, the third in a series, details the specific algorithm where convective rainfall was estimated with cloud-to-ground lightning occurrences from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), for the North American Monsoon region. Specifically, the authors present the methodology employed in their previous studies to get this estimation, noise test, spatial and temporal neighbors and the algorithm of the Kalman filter for dynamically derived precipitation from lightning.

Minimizing economic impacts from post-fire debris flows in the western United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin McCoy ◽  
Vitaliy Krasko ◽  
Paul Santi ◽  
Daniel Kaffine ◽  
Steffen Rebennack
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Fire Debris

Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Summertime Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity over the Continental United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (10) ◽  
pp. 3596-3601 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Timothy J. Brown
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Basin ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Lightning Strikes ◽  
Northern Rocky Mountains ◽  
Seasonally Dry ◽  
Desert Southwest ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning

Abstract Summertime cloud-to-ground lightning strikes are responsible for the majority of wildfire ignitions across vast sections of the seasonally dry western United States. In this study, a strong connection between active phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and regional summertime lightning activity was found across the interior western United States. This intraseasonal mode of lightning activity emanates northward from the desert Southwest across the Great Basin and into the northern Rocky Mountains. The MJO is shown to provide favorable conditions for the northward propagation of widespread lightning activity through the amplification of the upper-level ridge over the western United States and the development of midtropospheric instability. Given the relative predictability of the MJO with long lead times, results allude to the potential for intraseasonal predictability of lightning activity and proactive fire management planning.

The Timing of Susceptibility to Post-Fire Debris Flows in the Western United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 277-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
JEROME V. DeGRAFF ◽  
SUSAN H. CANNON ◽  
JOSEPH E. GARTNER
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Fire Debris

scholarly journals Empirical atmospheric thresholds for debris flows and flash floods in the Southern French Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 757-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Turkington ◽  
J. Ettema ◽  
C. J. van Westen ◽  
K. Breinl
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Mountainous Regions

Abstract. Debris flows and flash floods are often preceded by intense, convective rainfall. The establishment of reliable rainfall thresholds is an important component for quantitative hazard and risk assessment, and for the development of an early warning system. Traditional empirical thresholds based on peak intensity, duration and antecedent rainfall can be difficult to verify due to the localized character of the rainfall and the absence of weather radar or sufficiently dense rain gauge networks in mountainous regions. However, convective rainfall can be strongly linked to regional atmospheric patterns and profiles. There is potential to employ this in empirical threshold analysis. This work develops a methodology to determine robust thresholds for flash floods and debris flows utilizing regional atmospheric conditions derived from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, comparing the results with rain gauge derived thresholds. The method includes selecting the appropriate atmospheric indicators, categorizing the potential thresholds, determining and testing the thresholds. The method is tested in the Ubaye Valley in the southern French Alps, which is known to have localized convection triggered debris flows and flash floods. This paper shows that instability of the atmosphere and specific humidity at 850 hPa are the most important atmospheric indicators for debris flows and flash floods in the study area. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that atmospheric reanalysis data is an important asset, and could replace rainfall measurements in empirical exceedence thresholds for debris flows and flash floods.

scholarly journals Model-Generated Predictions of Dry Thunderstorm Potential

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 605-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam L. Rorig ◽  
Steven J. McKay ◽  
Sue A. Ferguson ◽  
Paul Werth
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Western United States ◽  
State University ◽  
Lightning Strikes ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Interagency Coordination ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽  
Fire Ignitions

Abstract Dry thunderstorms (those that occur without significant rainfall at the ground) are common in the interior western United States. Moisture drawn into the area from the Gulfs of Mexico and California is sufficient to form high-based thunderstorms. Rain often evaporates before reaching the ground, and cloud-to-ground lightning generated by these storms strikes dry fuels. Fire weather forecasters at the National Weather Service and the National Interagency Coordination Center try to anticipate days with widespread dry thunderstorms because they result in multiple fire ignitions, often in remote areas. The probability of the occurrence of dry thunderstorms that produce fire-igniting lightning strikes was found to be greater on days with high instability and a deficit of moisture at low levels of the atmosphere. Based on these upper-air variables, an algorithm was developed to estimate the potential of dry lightning (lightning that strikes the ground with little or no rainfall at the surface) when convective storms are expected. In the current study, this algorithm has been applied throughout the western United States, with modeled meteorological variables rather than the observed soundings that have previously been used, to develop a predictive scheme for estimating the risk of dry thunderstorms. Predictions of the risk of dry thunderstorms were generated from real-time forecasts using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) for the summers of 2004 and 2005. During that period, 240 large lightning-caused fires were ignited in the model domain. Of those fires, 40% occurred where the probability of dry lightning was predicted to be equal to or greater than 90% and 58% occurred where the probability was 75% or greater.

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